Intermission

Congratulations! If you got this far you've

• explored the idea of probability distributions and calculated an example
• created some R functions to sample from, and evaluate your example
• conducted a real Bayesian statistical inference involving dice and blu-tack

This last example was also interesting because - although we are working on the right of this picture:

...actually all the models we tested were derived from our scientific understanding on the left. To illustrate this, consider:

Questions

How do you know that (for example) I didn't just make a mistake in writing down the numbers?

Or that I hadn't just edited the data to make it work?

Or maybe my colleague (who did some of the experiments) played a practical joke?